Bitcoin Distribution Ends: Mid-Cycle Pause Or Start Of A Longer Bear Market?

Bitcoin has faced persistent selling pressure since October, when the price reversed sharply after reaching an all-time high near $125,000. Within weeks, the market dropped toward the $60,000 region, triggering a broad shift in sentiment from late-cycle optimism to defensive positioning. While volatility is not unusual after strong rallies, the speed of this correction has reinforced concerns that the market may be transitioning into a deeper cyclical slowdown rather than a brief consolidation phase.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, on-chain data support this interpretation. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric — which tracks long-term coin activity relative to holding behavior — peaked at approximately 0.02676 in December 2025, about two months after the price ATH. This lag is typical for cumulative on-chain indicators. Since then, the metric has begun trending downward, historically a signal that distribution phases are ending and accumulation periods are beginning.

Previous cycles show that similar reversals in liveliness often preceded extended accumulation phases lasting roughly 1.1 to 2.5 years. If the pattern holds, the current market environment may reflect an early-stage restructuring phase rather than an imminent recovery. Investors are therefore watching both price action and on-chain signals closely to assess whether stabilization or further downside risk lies ahead.

Liveliness Reversal Signals Potential Shift Toward Long-Term Accumulation

Adler further notes that liveliness peaked shortly after Bitcoin’s all-time high and has since begun trending downward, a pattern historically associated with a transition from distribution toward accumulation. In this context, the central question is no longer whether a bear phase has begun, but rather its depth and duration. Entity-Adjusted Liveliness — which measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days created while filtering internal entity transfers — provides insight into long-term holder behavior and capital rotation across the network.

Although Bitcoin reached roughly $125,000 in October 2025, liveliness continued rising for two additional months, peaking near 0.02676 in December, a typical lag for cumulative on-chain metrics. As of mid-February 2026, the indicator has eased to about 0.02669, already below both its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance. This configuration historically reflects declining spending activity among long-term holders.

Previous cycles show comparable structures. Accumulation phases beginning in 2020 lasted about 1.1 years, while the 2022–2024 period extended roughly 2.5 years. If this pattern repeats, accumulation could persist into late 2026 or even mid-2027. Confirmation would likely require the 90-day average to roll over decisively below the 365-day trend, signaling a fully established structural transition.

Bitcoin Weekly Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a clear structural shift from late-cycle expansion into a corrective phase, with price currently consolidating near the $67,000 zone after a sharp decline from the ~$125,000 peak. The breakdown below the medium-term moving averages confirms weakening momentum, while repeated failures to reclaim the $90,000–$100,000 region reinforce the transition toward a bearish regime rather than a simple pullback.

Technically, the most notable development is the loss of the green mid-cycle moving average, which previously acted as dynamic support throughout the 2024–2025 uptrend. Bitcoin is now trading well below that level, while the longer-term red moving average near the mid-$50,000 area represents the next major structural support. Historically, sustained trading below intermediate averages often precedes extended consolidation or deeper corrections.

Volume dynamics also suggest caution. The spike accompanying the recent selloff indicates strong distribution rather than orderly profit-taking. However, subsequent volume moderation may imply that immediate panic selling has eased, at least temporarily.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above $60,000, range formation remains plausible. A decisive breakdown below that level would likely increase downside risk toward longer-term cost-basis supports. Conversely, reclaiming the $80,000–$90,000 zone would be required to materially improve the broader technical outlook.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com