Ethereum Defies Crowd Expectations: Here’s Why ETH May Crash Even With a US-Iran Deal

While the war between the United States (supported by Israel) and Iran has dragged on for almost a month, recent indications hint that a de-escalation might be on the horizon.

Some industry participants believe that an eventual truce could act as a catalyst for the cryptocurrency market, but one popular analyst thinks such a development could prompt a price collapse for Ethereum.

ETH Does the Opposite

The bear market observed over the past several months has caused the broader crypto market to decline substantially from its peak registered last year. In addition, the war in the Middle East has worsened things by spreading further panic and uncertainty among investors.

According to X user Ted, though, ETH’s reaction to the conflict has been anything but logical. When the US and Iran began exchanging strikes, many braced for a steep sell-off, yet the price slipped from about $2,000 to around $1,850 – an evident drop but perhaps far from the meltdown the crowd feared.

Lately, numerous developments have signaled that a ceasefire might be on the way. The BBC reported that Iran has received a 15-point peace plan from the United States, while Iranian officials have opened the key oil corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, for “non-hostile vessels.” Oil prices fell on the news, while Ted said people now expect a pump for ETH after a potential peace deal.

However, he believes the second-largest cryptocurrency could post a minor resurgence after the positive development (if it indeed happens), followed by a plunge toward new lows.

Other analysts claimed that ETH is at a crossroads and that the next move will heavily depend on certain drivers. Merlijn The Trader, for instance, stressed the importance of the $2K psychological level, suggesting that holding above that mark could trigger a price explosion to a whopping $12,000. On the other hand, losing it would break nine years of support.

Meanwhile, Wise Crypto assumed that the market is at “a tipping point,” with recent whale selling acting as a bearish force, while the ongoing shift from exchanges to self-custody provides a counterbalancing bullish signal.

‘Generational Buy Zone?’

Others are entirely optimistic, suggesting that ETH has reached levels that can be interpreted as perfect buying opportunities. Ali Martinez, for example, argued that the asset had entered a “generational buy zone” because its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) had fallen below 1.

The analyst reminded that in the past, drops to such territory have been followed by massive price increases. He also outlined several MVRV pricing bands designed to serve as a roadmap, with $4,632/$5,624 set as long-term “expansion” zones.

In the meantime, BitMine continues to acquire ETH following a fresh purchase of around 65,000 coins for around $140 million. The company now holds nearly 4% of the asset’s circulating supply, while its aggressive accumulation could encourage smaller players to follow suit and allocate capital to the ecosystem.

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